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A shopper buys vegetables at a market in
Beijing July 14, 2008. China's CPI rose 7.9% in the first six months this year,
the National Bureau of Statistics announced in Beijing Thursday, July 17,
2008.
China's economy slowed down for a fourth straight
quarter as inflation eased in June, official figures showed on Thursday, giving
more ammunition to advocates for a looser monetary policy.
The Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) grew 10.1 percent in the second quarter after rising 10.6
percent in the first three months, said Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the National
Bureau of Statistics at a press conference in Beijing. China's economic growth
has been on a steady decline since peaking in the second quarter of
2007.
NBS chief economist Yao Jingyuan said the
double-digit GDP growth indicated China's economy was still growing at a steady
and relatively fast pace.
"The cooling of GDP growth indicated the
government's macro-economic policy to prevent the economy from going overheated
has paid off," said Yao. The slowing world economy and weaker demand on
international markets also adversely affected the Chinese economy.
Another widely watched indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) --
an important measure of inflation, moderated to 7.1 percent in June after rising
7.7 percent in the previous month thanks to easing food prices.
The combination of economic slowdown and easing inflation may give rise
to louder calls for an ease in the monetary policy.
Analysts said that the tight monetary policy put in place at the end of
last year has brought about great difficulties for many firms, especially
private ones. Thousands of small and medium enterprises have gone bankrupt in
the coastal areas as they could hardly get loans from banks, reports said. Fast
appreciating yuan value, rising cost of labor and raw materials are also key
reasons for the situation.
As the world's largest developing country, China needs fast economic
development to maximize employment.
However, any ease in monetary policy will be a tough call, in face of
inflation pressure.
"In spite of falls in the consumer prices in the last two months, the
prices are still running at a relatively high level," Li Xiaochao said. "We will
continue to prevent prices from rising too fast and curb inflation."
Adding to the price pressure, the Producer Price Index (PPI) continue to
jump, rising to a three-year high of 8.8 percent in June over a year earlier
after increasing 8.2 percent in the previous month.
The PPI measures
the prices at the factory gate level and is usually used to predict future CPI
level, as retailers or manufacturers will eventually pass the rising cost
to consumers.
Inflationary expectation is also a major concern.
"With the rapid price increases in the global market, the public will have
expectations for further price rises, " according to Li.
If consumers expect prices to rise, they will ask
for pay increases, or rush to buy products, thus exerting further upward
pressure on prices.
Li also cited the recent petrol and electricity
price increases, as well as post-quake construction which will increase the
demand for building materials.
These concerns may be part of the reasons why the finance committee of
the National People¡¯s Congress, China's parliament, pledged on Wednesday to
maintain its tight monetary policy for the rest of the year.
However, watchers sensed a softening of words in its description of the
fight against inflation. The committee said curbing price pressures would be a
"prominent task" in the months ahead, instead of "top priority," phrasing that
economic leaders repeated in the early months of 2008.
Analysts believe policy
makers are trying to find a balance between inflation and economy growth and are
gradually shifting towards preventing a major economic
slowdown. |